Fig. 3

Cumulative HCC incidences in three risk groups based on the recalibration-in-the-large. Kaplan-Meier curve demonstrating significant differences in the cumulative HCC incidences among the low-risk group (predicted probability < 1.3%, the median of the predicted probability in the non-HCC patients), medium-risk group (predicted probability 1.3–15.5%), and high-risk group (predicted probability > 15.5%, the HCC incidence in the validation cohort) (log-rank test, p-value = 9e−04; low-risk vs. medium-risk with p-value = 0.01, medium-risk vs. high-risk with p-value = 0.08, and low-risk vs. high-risk with p-value = 3e−05). The two probability thresholds were reasonable for risk classification based on the estimation by recalibration-in-the-large in the validation cohort. Abbreviations: HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma