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Table. 2 Characteristics and performance of the original and updated ASAP diagnostic prediction models

From: Validation and update of a multivariable prediction model for the identification and management of patients at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma

Characteristics ASAP model1 Recalibration-in-the-large Recalibration Model revision
Calibration parameters
 Intercept 0 − 3.243 − 3.577
 Slope 1 1 1.192
Model coefficients2
 Intercept − 7.57711770 − 10.82011770 − 12.60892 − 12.95521
 bage 0.04666357 0.04666357 0.0556229754 0.06178
 bsex − 0.57611693 − 0.57611693 − 0.6867313806 − 0.7449
 bAFP 0.42243533 0.42243533 0.5035429134 0.55643
 bPIVKA-II 1.10518910 1.10518910 1.3173854072 1.28268
Model performance
 Calibration intercept − 3.243 − 0.000 − 0.000 − 0.000
 Calibration slope 1.192 1.192 1 1
 Residual deviance 851.25 212.552 208.489 207.962
 df 1012 1011 1010 1007
 LRT chi-square p-value3 < 0.001 0.332 0.913
 Emax (95% CI) 0.526 (0.483–0.557) 0.053 (0.042–0.159) 0.087 (0.049–0.198) 0.082 (0.043–0.185)
 Eavg (95% CI) 0.246 (0.230–0.262) 0.009 (0.007–0.018) 0.006 (0.004–0.015) 0.005 (0.004–0.015)
 C-statistic (95% CI) 0.982 (0.970–0.990) 0.982 (0.972–0.991) 0.982 (0.971–0.991) 0.982 (0.971–0.991)
 Brier score 0.127107476 0.028182937 0.0280551 0.02789345
 AIC 851.25 214.55 212.49 217.96
  1. AFP alpha-fetoprotein, AIC akaike information criterion, CI confidence interval, df degrees of freedom, Eavg average absolute difference in the predicted and calibrated probabilities, Emax maximum absolute difference in the predicted and calibrated probabilities, LRT likelihood ratio test, PIVKA-II protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II
  2. 1The model coefficients are derived from the original ASAP model reported by Yang et al [8]
  3. 2bage, bsex, bAFP, and bPIVKA-II are the regression coefficients of age, sex, AFP, and PIVKA-II, respectively
  4. 3Comparison with the model revision using the methods described by Vergouwe et al [15]